Chinese academics are departing the United States at an accelerating pace, in a sign of America’s diminishing appeal for some of China’s brightest scientific minds. 

That finding comes from a new study by researchers from Princeton University, Harvard University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who conducted a survey of scientists of Chinese origin in the U.S. and examined bibliographical data from academic journals.

Their results show that a pervasive fear has enveloped the Chinese-born scholarly community: almost three-quarters of respondents say they feel unsafe as academic researchers in America. Unease about the U.S. government’s investigations into ethnically Chinese researchers is the number one reason for their insecurity.

That should be cause for alarm for Washington, as it seeks to compete with Beijing for expertise in science and engineering. Ambitious legislation such as the Chips and Science Act, passed in August, has unlocked a wave of government investment into scientific research: But a shrinking pool of talent may be willing to accept its funding. 

This week, The Wire looks at sentiment among Chinese scientists in America: how it’s changed, and what it means for America’s ability to keep up in scientific competition. 

FEAR AND UNEASE

In 1993, a team of researchers conducted a survey of Chinese international students as part of a study into China’s “brain drain” to America. It was four years after the Tiananmen Massacre, and Washington had extended an extraordinary offer of permanent residency to any mainland Chinese citizen in the U.S. Yet in spite of China’s political and economic conditions at the time, almost one-third of the students surveyed expressed a desire to eventually return to China.1Page 30

In the years that followed, however, an overwhelming majority of Chinese scholars preferred to remain in America after completing their doctorates, even as the number of students studying there skyrocketed. In 2020, about one-fifth of U.S. doctorates were awarded to foreign students from China, according to the National Science Foundation. Between 2005 and 2015, the “stay rate” among Chinese PhDs in the U.S. was 87 percent.²The NSF defines the stay rate as the share of doctorate recipients who report an intent to live in the U.S. after graduation.

“[A U.S. university is] structured in a way that is good for young scholars,” says Yu Xie, a professor of sociology at Princeton University, explaining why early-career researchers may prefer to start in the U.S. instead of China. “It’s less hierarchical, it’s a meritocracy. There’s a peer review system instead of state control.” 

Few academics who stay in the U.S. care merely about their own career advancement: an overwhelming majority of respondents (89 percent) to the most recent survey expressed a desire to contribute to U.S. leadership in science and technology. Those invited to respond to the survey included all academic faculty who identified as Chinese-American; they did not necessarily have to be Chinese citizens.

But trends from the last two years show how many U.S.-trained Chinese scientists may be reconsidering their choices. Xie and his co-authors, who did not receive external funding to undertake the project, collected data from academic journals to identify Chinese scholars who switched their institutional affiliations from American universities to Chinese ones.

The number of scientists returning to China has increased over the last decade, likely owing in part to China’s growing investment into research and academic stature. But departures shot up starting in 2020, coinciding with the Covid pandemic and an increase in U.S. prosecutions of Chinese academics in connection with the China Initiative, a Trump-era program that sought to crack down on cases of Chinese espionage. 

Critics and civil rights groups contend that the China Initiative engaged in racial profiling, and unfairly targeted academics for administrative infractions rather than real threats to U.S. national security. In February, the Department of Justice announced that it was ending the program, although it has continued to pursue several China Initiative cases. Last month, a federal judge threw out all but one charge in one remaining case against Franklin Tao, a University of Kansas professor. Another professor, Xiao Mingqing of Southern Illinois University, was sentenced last month to a year of probation for errors on his tax return.

Experts say it is clear that the damage of the government’s initiative has been done. “Concerns about foreign scholars haven’t just disappeared,” says Ju Yiguang, a professor of mechanical and aerospace engineering also at Princeton University, who participated in meetings with the White House this year to share the concerns of Chinese American scholars. “[The government] is still investigating Asian American scholars… Nevertheless, removing the China Initiative [name] is a positive step.”

About 60 percent of Chinese scientists polled intend on relocating abroad, suggesting that the trend of increasing departures is likely to continue. But not all are set on returning to China: a roughly equal number of survey respondents expressed intentions to relocate to Asian and non-Asian countries. 

CONSEQUENCES FOR COMPETITION

Close to half of survey respondents also said they intend to avoid federal grants, another sign of the chilling legacy of the China Initiative. Many scientists prosecuted under the program were charged in connection to administrative infractions on federal grant applications, such as improperly filed disclosure forms. 

Among those who indicated an intention to avoid federal grants, 84 percent cited fear of “legal liability for mistakes on forms and disclosures,” while 65 percent cited “fear that collaboration with Chinese researchers will put me under suspicion.” Already there are signs that Asian scientists are shying away from government funding: between 2011 and 2020, the number of proposals for NSF grants fell 17 percent, but from Asian researchers, proposals fell by 28 percent. 

Chinese scientists’ reluctance to apply for federal funding comes at a moment when Congress has just authorized hundreds of billions in federal funding for scientific research. The National Science Foundation, for example, a leading distributor of federal grants for scientific research, was allocated $81 billion — a 40 percent increase — under the CHIPS and Science Act passed in August. 

The NSF’s funds will find their way to a willing recipient, but a fall in applications for its grants may hurt its goal of fostering the most innovative research. “It’s very concerning for U.S. competitiveness,” says Emily Weinstein, a research fellow focused on U.S.-China technology competition at the Center for Security and Emerging Technology, a Washington D.C. think tank. “Government agencies need to do something to reassure researchers, whether it’s improving training [for law enforcement] on research processes or clarifying just what a conflict of interest [for researchers] looks like.”

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